MARA Holdings (MARA) Might Be a UFO!
I was hunting UFOs when I suddenly found myself in a long foot race with a bunch of other fellow humans. But before I discuss that…
What's the Word on the Street?
The market was largely lower today, weighed down by tech. We're still basically in a holding pattern until tomorrow afternoon when the Federal Reserve meeting minutes from last month release. It will show what the Fed was thinking and what might be in store for future interest rate cuts. Investors are still betting on a September rate cut.
Hope Depot kicked off retail earnings this week and almost met expectations, but reaffirmed its full-year outlook. The latter sent the stock higher. More retail earnings are still to come that should shed more light on how the American consumer is doing.
MARA Holdings (MARA)
What Is It?
MARA Holdings, Inc. is a digital asset technology company, which engages in mining cryptocurrencies with a focus on the Bitcoin ecosystem. It also deals with owning and operating bitcoin mining facilities or data centers, selling proprietary software or technology to third parties operating in the Bitcoin ecosystem, offering advisory and consulting services to support Bitcoin mining ventures in domestic and international jurisdictions, and generating electricity from renewable energy resources or methane gas capture to power Bitcoin mining projects. The company was founded on February 23, 2010 and is headquartered in Hallandale Beach, FL. The listed name for MARA is MARA Holdings, Inc. Common Stock.
Why Is It a Possible UFO?
Primarily its current share price relative to its fair value and what other option traders expect are the reasons MARA could be a UFO.
What About Recent News?
There's not a lot going on, MARA is a bitcoin sympathy play, i.e. bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets are down, therefore, MARA is also down. Its short interest is also around 37% of its float, which could be a bearish indicator. Despite that, it's received notable analyst upgrades recently.
What's the Current Price?
MARA is down on the year, but down ~22% on the month. And after taking the trade earlier this morning, it's fallen a bit more to around ~5-6% on the day.
What’s the Fair Value?
I’d first like to emphasize that fair value is subjective. Many analysts at many banks and institutions rate stocks differently and assign fair value in their own unique way. So, what I like to do is take all the recent fair values since the most recent earnings report and average them. In this case…
Since MARA's most recent earnings report on 07/29/2025, it has received 2 ratings and taking the average, the fair value might be somewhere around: $23.
Both ratings are a buy. The lowest price target is $20, while the highest is $26.
What Do Options Traders Expect?
Calls are trading over equidistant Puts, which means traders think there is a chance to the upside. You can see because… forget about the green columns and focus on the red. Notice how on the right side for the $14 Put it says $0.49, it’s $0.67 for the equidistant Call at $17.5.
The premium (the credit you receive for executing the trade) is currently less for selling Puts, as opposed to selling Calls. Basically because of that, option traders expect the stock to go up, rather than down.
How About Volatility?
The IV rank (the purple line) for MARA (stock price in blue) is currently hovering around 3.14, which is very low (IV rank goes from 0-100). This makes short strategies (which are what I prefer) less attractive.
What's the Trade?
My preferred trade is a variation of the wheel without the rolling, AKA cash-secured puts. I typically like to target stocks that offer a dividend and are below fair value.
Why a dividend? If the trade results in assignment and I’m on the hook for X amount of shares, I can at least be satisfied knowing I picked a (hopefully under fair value) company that will pay me a small amount while I run the other side of the trade AKA covered calls.
MARA does not offer a dividend, but that’s not a dealbreaker!
It’s a fairly low-risk strategy (all options trading is risky!), that has a higher probability of success, but requires a higher amount of collateral.
So if you saw the most recent image above, I already STO (sold to open) 4 contracts of the $14 Put for the September 26th expiration. I like to have a DTE (Days To Expiration) that is around ~45 days.
When the trade reaches 50% profit I will buy it back. I don’t like to be greedy and go for more profit, because I would rather not waste my time being in a trade for too long.
What About Alternative Trade Ideas?
- If the collateral requirement is too high, another idea is a put credit spread. You would sell a put at a strike below the current share price and then buy a put at a lower strike than the put you sold. By doing so, you will avoid the collateral requirement of a cash-secured put, but the credit received will be smaller. Also, if the trade goes sideways, you will not be assigned shares so no collecting dividends and running covered calls afterwards.
- Just invest! 1 share or even fractional shares are a way to get a foothold in a stock that you think might increase in value.
Completed Trades
Dino Silvestro
BTC for 71.50% profit
Dino Silvestro
BTC for 50% profit
Wait…Where Are the Candlesticks? And All the Other Indicators?
I know many traders love their candlesticks and a ton of indicators. I prefer simplicity. Candlesticks aren’t necessary unless you’re the kind of trader that wants to try and pick the perfect moment to execute a trade, and even then it’s not a sure thing.
As for indicators, there are a ton. Some of them work sometimes. None are perfect. I don’t want to get bogged down with too many. You’ll drive yourself crazy looking at too many of them, so find a handful you like and stick with those.
Disclosures
- I currently have an open trade with MARA (as mentioned in this post).
- No trade is a sure thing. There is always risk involved.
- This blog post is not meant to take the place of financial advice, but hopefully acts as a guide for learning or informational purposes.